Waterfowl Overview and Outlook for 2018

Status of Duck Populations and Wetlands on the Breeding Grounds

The number of breeding ducks estimated on this year’s North American spring waterfowl survey was 41.2 million. This estimate is 13 percent below last year’s estimate of 47.3 million and is 17 percent higher than the long-term average (1955-2017; 35.4 million). Wetland numbers on the breeding grounds declined from 2017, which was a year when ducks found good nesting habitat throughout most of their breeding range. The estimated number of wetlands on the 2018 spring survey was 5.2 million, 14 percent below last year’s estimate of 6.1 million and similar to the long-term average. As a result of good habitat conditions and production in recent years, population estimates for most duck species surveyed were well above long-term averages.

Canada Geese

Most Canada geese that occur in Illinois during fall and winter are from two distinct populations, the Southern Hudson Bay Population (SHBP) and the Mississippi Flyway Giant Population (MFGP). Canada geese that nest in northern Ontario and northern Manitoba near the southern and western portions of Hudson and James Bays and adjacent areas are part of the SHBP. Canada geese that nest in Illinois and other Mississippi Flyway states and in southern Ontario and southern Manitoba are part of the MFGP. In recent years about 35 percent of Illinois’ Canada goose harvest consisted of SHBP geese and approximately 61 percent of Illinois’ harvest was made up of MFGP geese, September through January. Preliminary spring survey results for SHBP and MFGP geese showed that breeding populations were similar to or declined slightly from last year, indicating stable breeding populations. However, spring was later than average this year in the subarctic where SHBP geese nest. Recurring spring snow-storms and persistent cold temperatures are expected to result in below average production of SHBP geese. Production of MFGP Canada geese is expected to be variable due to a late spring, but generally near average across most Mississippi Flyway states.

Snow Geese

An estimated 4.06 million Mid-continent light geese were observed on the 2018 Midwinter Waterfowl Survey, a nationwide waterfowl survey conducted by each state which occurs each year in early January. This estimate is 19 percent greater than the number observed in 2017 (3.42 million). Preliminary information on 2018 habitat conditions for Mid-continent light geese indicated that nesting was delayed due to a prolonged period of harsh spring weather. Severe cold weather extended well into the nesting season and poor production and a below-average fall flight is expected.

White-fronted Geese

White-fronted geese (“specklebellies” or “specs”) that make up the Mid-continent Population (MCP) concentrate on staging areas in the southern Canadian prairies each fall. Biologists conduct fall aerial inventories during peak of white-front migration to monitor changes in population status. In fall 2017, approximately 771,600 MCP white-fronted geese were observed, which is 23 percent less than the number observed in 2016 (1,000,100) and 4 percent below the 10-year average (800,651). In 2018, nesting conditions were below average or average across most of the breeding range of MCP white-fronted geese.

For additional information on waterfowl harvests, population trends, aerial surveys, and hunter opinions visit:

• U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
• Illinois Natural History Survey
• Illinois Department of Natural Resources- Hunt Illinois